Category Research and automation software for video creators · Listed Flippa, verified listing, United Arab Emirates Asking $5,100,000 · ARR $1.6M in the title · Monthly profit $49,801 · Margin 45% in the title Subscribers 7,400 · Churn 21% overall, period not stated · Age 3 years Asking multiple 8.5× annualised profit and 3.2× ARR, our calculation
The market median for confirmed SaaS transactions is 3.9× profit. This listing asks for more than double that. The page does not show a profit multiple, so a reader sees the price and the ARR and not the ratio between price and what the business earns.
That is the finding. No reading of the churn figure gets a 30% return anywhere near the asking price.
The listing gives churn of 21% with no period. We ran both readings. In each, we first assumed new subscribers replace churned ones exactly, so MRR stays at $133,333. We then assumed acquisition stops on closing day.
| 21% per month | 21% per year | |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-adjusted multiple | 3.0× | 3.6× |
| IRR at the asking price, acquisition holding MRR flat | −13.0% | −9.5% |
| Maximum offer at a 30% IRR, same case | $1,901,000 | $2,065,000 |
| IRR at the asking price, acquisition stops | −89.8% | −25.4% |
| Maximum offer at a 30% IRR, acquisition stops | $143,000 | $1,341,000 |
| Annual net revenue retention | 5.9% | 79.0% |
| Half-life of the current customer base | 2.9 months | 35.3 months |
The most favourable case is churn of 21% a year with acquisition holding revenue flat. Even there the return at $5,100,000 is negative, and the ceiling is $2,065,000, 60% below the ask.
If the rate is per year, the base loses about 144 subscribers a month. Replacing them means about $2,600 of new MRR a month. The listing gives no split of new and churned subscribers.
If the rate is per month, the base loses about 1,550 subscribers a month, and the buyer would need roughly $28,000 of new MRR every month just to stand still. These are our calculations from the disclosed rate and an average of about $18 per subscriber per month.
A buyer can settle which reading is true with one request: monthly subscriber counts from Stripe for the last twelve months.
We used the 37% margin implied by the profit figure, because it is the one tied to a dollar amount.
The description says a browser extension integrates into a video platform. It does not name the platform or say under what terms the integration runs. Platform terms were not part of the model, and no adjustment for them is included in the figures above. It is a question for the seller, and the answer would change the multiple.
The listing also gives no owner hours, no customer concentration and no traffic split. Those checks did not trigger because no figure was available to trigger them.
| Adjustment | 21% per month | 21% per year |
|---|---|---|
| Market median, confirmed transactions | 3.9× | 3.9× |
| Monthly churn above 5% | −0.9× | not triggered |
| Net revenue retention below 100% | not triggered | −0.3× |
| Risk-adjusted | 3.0× | 3.6× |
$1,600,000 on the yearly reading, with $480,000 of it held back for twelve months. The held-back amount pays out if MRR measured in Stripe is at least $125,000 at month twelve.
That is below the $2,065,000 ceiling in the best case and above the $1,341,000 ceiling if acquisition stops, so it sits between the two. If the churn period turns out to be monthly, we would not make an offer above $143,000 on the model as it stands.
At $5,100,000 the return is negative on every reading we ran. On our best case, the price would need to fall by about 60% to reach a 30% return.
Before any offer, we would ask for the churn period in writing, twelve months of subscriber counts, the revenue split between subscriptions and other products, trailing twelve-month revenue and the terms of the video platform integration.
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